Scottish Premiership · Sun 8 Nov, 16:00 Logged before kick-off

Celtic 1-0 Kilmarnock

My shortlist

Celtic the pick at home to Kilmarnock

The model's view

81%

12%

Celtic win 81% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 81% / 12% / 7%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 81%.

Celtic are 1st with 28 points from 12 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 11 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.4 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Kilmarnock are 12th with 9 points from 12 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Celtic took 25 points from 11 games, Kilmarnock 9 from 11; on performance Celtic were 1.8 goals a game better.
Kilmarnock look slightly weaker than usual (missing Calum Ferrie, Erik Ring, Bailey Rice).
Signal: Celtic, unlucky last defeat (0-2 v Falkirk, despite creating more).
▲ Celtic: unlucky last defeat (0-2 v Falkirk, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Position 1 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.33 overall, 2.17 at home, 2.50 away. Points v an average side: +10.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Rangers (H)	0-1	−0.06
11 Oct	Motherwell (A)	2-0	+2.19
18 Oct	Hearts (H)	7-1	+3.29
25 Oct	Hibernian (A)	2-1	+0.17
28 Oct	Dundee United (H)	2-2	+0.75
1 Nov	Falkirk (A)	0-2	+1.83

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 12 · performance rank 9 As it looks

Points per game: 0.75 overall, 0.83 at home, 0.67 away. Points v an average side: −7.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Hearts (H)	1-1	−1.33
10 Oct	Rangers (A)	1-3	+0.91
17 Oct	Motherwell (H)	3-2	−1.06
24 Oct	Falkirk (A)	0-3	−0.22
28 Oct	Dundee (A)	1-3	−0.23
31 Oct	St Johnstone (H)	2-2	+2.01

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Celtic: 25 pts from 11, performance +1.38. Kilmarnock: 9 pts from 11, performance −0.38.

Celtic: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Haissem Hassan, Auston Trusty, Viljami Sinisalo. (confirmed XI)

Kilmarnock: Slightly weaker than usual. Missing regulars: Calum Ferrie, Erik Ring, Bailey Rice, Michael John Kamara. (confirmed XI)