Scottish Premiership · Sun 8 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Hearts 2-5 Falkirk

My shortlist

Hearts the pick at home to Falkirk

The model's view

65%

21%

14%

Hearts win 65% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: watch

Early prediction: 65% / 21% / 14%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 14%.

Hearts are 3rd with 20 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Falkirk are 4th with 18 points from 12 games, but on performances they rank only 10th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Hearts took 20 points from 10 games, Falkirk 15 from 11; on performance Hearts were 0.8 goals a game better.
In their favour: Hearts take 2.6 points a game at home.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: Falkirk, smash-and-grab last win (2-0 v Celtic, despite creating less).
▼ Falkirk: smash-and-grab last win (2-0 v Celtic, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Falkirk have won 4 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 3 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 1.82 overall, 2.60 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: +4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Falkirk (A)	1-2	−0.37
19 Sept	Kilmarnock (A)	1-1	+1.34
10 Oct	St Mirren (H)	5-0	+2.31
18 Oct	Celtic (A)	1-7	−1.75
25 Oct	Motherwell (A)	2-0	+0.10
28 Oct	Rangers (H)	2-2	+0.02

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 4 · performance rank 10 Flattered

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 1.50 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: +2.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	St Johnstone (A)	1-1	+0.22
10 Oct	Dundee (H)	1-2	−0.04
17 Oct	Hibernian (A)	2-1	−0.35
24 Oct	Kilmarnock (H)	3-0	−0.51
28 Oct	Aberdeen (A)	1-0	−0.70
1 Nov	Celtic (H)	2-0	−1.03

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Hearts: 20 pts from 10, performance +0.24. Falkirk: 15 pts from 11, performance −0.60.

Hearts: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Calvin Miller, James Wilson. (confirmed XI)

Falkirk: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ryan Strain, Leon McCann, Ben Krauhaus. (confirmed XI)