Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Fiorentina 2-2 Juventus

My shortlist

Juventus the pick away at Fiorentina

The model's view

18%

26%

56%

Juventus win 56% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 18% / 26% / 56%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 26%.

Fiorentina are 15th with 8 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 9th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Juventus are 7th with 17 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Fiorentina took 5 points from 5 games, Juventus 9 from 5; on performance Juventus were 0.3 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 15 · performance rank 9 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.80 overall, 0.40 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: −5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Napoli (H)	1-1	+0.05
10 Oct	Genoa (A)	1-2	−0.76
18 Oct	Como (H)	1-3	+0.98
25 Oct	Inter (A)	1-2	−1.52
29 Oct	Atalanta (H)	2-2	+0.46
2 Nov	Sassuolo (A)	4-2	+1.44

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 1.70 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: +2.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Atalanta (H)	2-0	+0.71
11 Oct	Cagliari (A)	1-1	+1.44
18 Oct	Lazio (H)	0-3	+0.10
25 Oct	Lecce (A)	2-0	−0.18
28 Oct	Genoa (A)	0-2	+0.12
1 Nov	Napoli (H)	2-0	+0.70

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Fiorentina: 5 pts from 5, performance +0.28. Juventus: 9 pts from 5, performance +0.63.

Fiorentina: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Nicolò Fagioli, Luca Ranieri. (confirmed XI)

Juventus: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Zeki Çelik, Nicolás González, Francisco Conceição, Kerim Alajbegović. (confirmed XI)