Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Genoa 1-2 Milan

My shortlist

Milan the pick away at Genoa

The model's view

21%

28%

50%

Milan win 50% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 21% / 28% / 50%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 50%.

Genoa are 12th with 13 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Milan are 5th with 21 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Genoa took 9 points from 4 games, Milan 8 from 4; on performance Milan were 1.1 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Warning: Milan, smash-and-grab last win (3-1 v Inter, despite creating less).
Signal: Genoa, smash-and-grab last win (2-1 v Lecce, despite creating less).
▼ Milan: smash-and-grab last win (3-1 v Inter, despite creating less) [tested signal]
▼ Genoa: smash-and-grab last win (2-1 v Lecce, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Position 12 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 1.30 overall, 1.67 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: −0.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Parma (A)	1-2	−0.07
10 Oct	Fiorentina (H)	2-1	+0.26
17 Oct	Roma (A)	0-2	+0.03
25 Oct	Venezia (H)	1-0	−2.52
28 Oct	Juventus (H)	2-0	+0.20
1 Nov	Lecce (A)	2-1	−0.29

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 2.10 overall, 2.40 at home, 1.80 away. Points v an average side: +7.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Lecce (H)	3-0	+1.25
11 Oct	Sassuolo (A)	1-1	−0.04
18 Oct	Atalanta (H)	3-2	+0.85
25 Oct	Udinese (A)	2-0	+2.96
28 Oct	Bologna (H)	2-4	−0.41
31 Oct	Inter (H)	3-1	−0.15

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Genoa: 9 pts from 4, performance −0.83. Milan: 8 pts from 4, performance +0.22.

Genoa: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Djibril Sow, Morten Frendrup, Tommaso Baldanzi. (confirmed XI)

Milan: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Samuel Chukwueze, Strahinja Pavlović, Pervis Estupiñán. (confirmed XI)