Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 17:00 Logged before kick-off

Inter 2-0 Como

My shortlist

Inter the pick at home to Como

The model's view

47%

29%

23%

Inter win 47% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 47% / 29% / 23%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 47%.

Inter are 3rd with 25 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 10 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.6 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Como are 4th with 23 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Inter took 16 points from 6 games, Como 14 from 6; on performance Inter were 1.2 goals a game better.
In their favour: Inter take 3.0 points a game at home.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: Inter, unlucky last defeat (1-3 v Milan, despite creating more).
▲ Inter: unlucky last defeat (1-3 v Milan, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Como have won 4 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 3 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.50 overall, 3.00 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +10.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Roma (A)	2-2	+1.59
10 Oct	Parma (H)	3-0	+1.43
17 Oct	Bologna (A)	3-1	+2.34
25 Oct	Fiorentina (H)	2-1	+2.48
28 Oct	Venezia (A)	2-0	+0.21
31 Oct	Milan (A)	1-3	+1.44

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 4 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 2.30 overall, 2.50 at home, 2.17 away. Points v an average side: +8.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Frosinone (A)	0-2	−0.18
11 Oct	Roma (H)	0-0	+0.75
18 Oct	Fiorentina (A)	3-1	−0.55
24 Oct	Sassuolo (H)	2-0	+1.29
27 Oct	Torino (A)	3-1	+1.05
1 Nov	Venezia (H)	1-0	+0.63

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Inter: 16 pts from 6, performance +1.57. Como: 14 pts from 6, performance +0.36.

Inter: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Yann Bisseck, Andy Diouf. (confirmed XI)

Como: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Maxence Caqueret, Jean Butez, Trevoh Chalobah, Kaiki, Assane Diao. (confirmed XI)