Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Logged before kick-off

Monza 0-1 Atalanta

My shortlist

Atalanta the pick away at Monza

The model's view

17%

26%

56%

Atalanta win 56% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 17% / 26% / 56%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 56%.

Monza are 18th with 7 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 10th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Atalanta are 13th with 11 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Monza took 7 points from 4 games, Atalanta 6 from 4; on performance Monza were 0.4 goals a game better.
The caution: Atalanta take 0.2 points a game away, against 1.1 overall.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Signal: Atalanta, unlucky last defeat (0-3 v Parma, despite creating more).
▲ Atalanta: unlucky last defeat (0-3 v Parma, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Position 18 · performance rank 10 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.70 overall, 1.50 at home, 0.17 away. Points v an average side: −6.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
18 Sept	Sassuolo (H)	2-1	−0.47
11 Oct	Lazio (A)	1-3	+0.17
19 Oct	Cagliari (H)	4-0	−0.67
23 Oct	Torino (A)	2-3	−0.73
28 Oct	Napoli (H)	1-4	−0.24
31 Oct	Bologna (A)	1-2	+0.03

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 13 · performance rank 12 As it looks

Points per game: 1.10 overall, 1.67 at home, 0.25 away. Points v an average side: −3.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Juventus (A)	0-2	+0.16
12 Oct	Venezia (H)	3-1	−1.37
18 Oct	Milan (A)	2-3	−0.47
25 Oct	Frosinone (H)	4-4	+1.46
29 Oct	Fiorentina (A)	2-2	−0.56
2 Nov	Parma (H)	0-3	+1.85

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Monza: 7 pts from 4, performance −0.09. Atalanta: 6 pts from 4, performance −0.50.

Monza: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Samuele Birindelli, Michael Folorunsho, Andrea Carboni. (confirmed XI)

Atalanta: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Franck Kessié, Raoul Bellanova, Lazar Samardžić, Jonathan Rowe, Thomas Kristensen. (confirmed XI)