Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 11:30 Logged before kick-off

Napoli 1-1 Lazio

My shortlist

Napoli the pick at home to Lazio

The model's view

49%

29%

22%

Napoli win 49% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 49% / 29% / 22%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

The story

Napoli are 10th with 14 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 4th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Lazio are 1st with 28 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank only 7th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 13 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Napoli took 9 points from 5 games, Lazio 15 from 5; on performance Napoli were 0.7 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Lazio have won 6 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Napoli

Position 10 · performance rank 4 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.40 overall, 1.75 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: +1.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
20 Sept	Fiorentina (A)	1-1	+0.23
10 Oct	Frosinone (H)	3-0	+1.67
17 Oct	Venezia (A)	0-1	+0.85
24 Oct	Roma (H)	3-3	+1.02
28 Oct	Monza (A)	4-1	+0.11
1 Nov	Juventus (A)	0-2	+0.53

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Lazio

Position 1 · performance rank 7 Flattered

Points per game: 2.80 overall, 2.60 at home, 3.00 away. Points v an average side: +12.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Venezia (A)	2-0	−0.80
11 Oct	Monza (H)	3-1	−0.81
18 Oct	Juventus (A)	3-0	+0.77
24 Oct	Parma (H)	2-1	+0.36
27 Oct	Sassuolo (A)	6-2	+2.70
1 Nov	Cagliari (H)	2-1	−0.48

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Napoli: 9 pts from 5, performance +0.47. Lazio: 15 pts from 5, performance −0.23.

Napoli	Opponent	Lazio
0-2 A (+0.5)	7. Juventus	3-0 A (+0.8)
1-0 H (+0.8)	8. Bologna	1-0 A (−0.9)
2-0 A (+0.1)	12. Genoa	1-0 H (+0.6)
4-1 A (+0.1)	18. Monza	3-1 H (−0.8)
0-1 A (+0.9)	19. Venezia	2-0 A (−0.8)

Team news

Napoli: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Matteo Politano, Alex Meret, Leonardo Spinazzola, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Stanislav Lobotka. (confirmed XI)

Lazio: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Mattia Zaccagni. (confirmed XI)