League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool

My shortlist

Blackpool the pick away at AFC Wimbledon

The model's view

32%

28%

40%

Blackpool win 40% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.0, Blackpool 1.2.

AFC Wimbledon are 18th with 13 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank only 23rd: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Blackpool are 19th with 12 points from 12 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.8 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 9 sides both have played: AFC Wimbledon took 7 points from 9 games, Blackpool 9 from 9; on performance there was little between them.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

AFC Wimbledon have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
AFC Wimbledon at home have spent 73% of their minutes level, against a league average of 50% (6 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
AFC Wimbledon's performances have been well below the model's expectations lately, not just their results. Slumps built on performances have tended to linger a little; unlucky runs haven't.

Position 18 · performance rank 23 Flattered

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.50 at home, 0.57 away. Points v an average side: −4.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
26 Sept	Cambridge (A)	1-1	−0.17
10 Oct	Plymouth (A)	1-2	−0.04
17 Oct	Sheffield Weds (A)	0-5	−2.08
20 Oct	Mansfield (H)	0-3	−1.68
24 Oct	Wycombe (H)	1-1	−0.06
31 Oct	Stockport (A)	1-2	−1.19

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 19 · performance rank 21 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.33 at home, 0.67 away. Points v an average side: −4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Plymouth (H)	2-4	−1.64
10 Oct	Cambridge (A)	0-1	−0.92
17 Oct	Leyton Orient (A)	0-2	−1.37
20 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons (H)	2-0	−0.71
24 Oct	Mansfield (H)	1-4	−0.90
1 Nov	Sheffield Weds (A)	1-1	+0.70

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

AFC Wimbledon: 7 pts from 9, performance −0.69. Blackpool: 9 pts from 9, performance −0.81.

AFC Wimbledon: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Blackpool: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)