League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Bromley v Notts County

My shortlist

Notts County the pick away at Bromley

The model's view

25%

26%

49%

Notts County win 49% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Bromley 1.1, Notts County 1.5.

Bromley are 24th with 9 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 10 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.2 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Notts County are 17th with 14 points from 12 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Bromley took 3 points from 5 games, Notts County 9 from 5; on performance Notts County were 2.2 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Bromley have gone 6 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Bromley at home have spent 44% of their minutes behind, against a league average of 23% (6 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Bromley's performances have been well below the model's expectations lately, not just their results. Slumps built on performances have tended to linger a little; unlucky runs haven't.

Position 24 · performance rank 24 As it looks

Points per game: 0.69 overall, 0.83 at home, 0.57 away. Points v an average side: −9.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Mansfield (A)	1-2	−1.18
17 Oct	Stockport (A)	0-1	−0.58
20 Oct	Leicester (H)	0-4	−1.97
24 Oct	Peterboro (H)	1-1	−1.11
27 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons (A)	1-4	−1.54
31 Oct	Wigan (A)	2-3	−0.67

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 17 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 1.17 overall, 1.33 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Reading (A)	0-2	−1.72
10 Oct	Oxford (H)	1-2	−0.49
17 Oct	Wycombe (A)	0-2	−0.32
20 Oct	Sheffield Weds (H)	2-0	+1.91
24 Oct	Stockport (H)	1-1	−1.97
31 Oct	Mansfield (A)	2-0	−0.16

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Bromley: 3 pts from 5, performance −1.81. Notts County: 9 pts from 5, performance +0.39.

Bromley: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Notts County: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)