League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Doncaster v Leyton Orient

My shortlist

Doncaster v Leyton Orient: too close to call

The model's view

35%

28%

37%

Leyton Orient win 37% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Doncaster 1.2, Leyton Orient 1.2.

Doncaster are 20th with 12 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.4 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Leyton Orient are 14th with 17 points from 13 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Doncaster took 8 points from 6 games, Leyton Orient 4 from 6; on performance Doncaster were 1.0 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Doncaster's performances have been well below the model's expectations lately, not just their results. Slumps built on performances have tended to linger a little; unlucky runs haven't.

Position 20 · performance rank 22 As it looks

Points per game: 0.92 overall, 1.33 at home, 0.57 away. Points v an average side: −5.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Burton (H)	1-0	−0.68
17 Oct	Leicester (A)	1-2	−0.62
20 Oct	Stockport (H)	0-2	−3.01
24 Oct	Sheffield Weds (H)	2-0	−0.02
27 Oct	Luton (A)	1-3	−0.64
31 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons (A)	1-6	−3.27

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 1.31 overall, 1.29 at home, 1.33 away. Points v an average side: −1.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Plymouth (H)	0-2	−0.64
10 Oct	Bradford (A)	0-0	−0.58
17 Oct	Blackpool (H)	2-0	+0.98
21 Oct	Reading (A)	0-1	+1.80
24 Oct	Burton (A)	1-2	−0.28
31 Oct	Cambridge (H)	3-0	−0.08

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Doncaster: 8 pts from 6, performance −0.10. Leyton Orient: 4 pts from 6, performance −1.10.

Doncaster: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Leyton Orient: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)