League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Leicester v Bradford

My shortlist

Leicester the pick at home to Bradford

The model's view

51%

26%

23%

Leicester win 51% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Leicester 1.2, Bradford 0.8.

Leicester are 10th with 19 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank 5th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 0.8 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Bradford are 7th with 22 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Leicester took 5 points from 7 games, Bradford 14 from 7; on performance Bradford were 0.3 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Leicester at home have spent 39% of their minutes behind, against a league average of 23% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 10 · performance rank 5 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.46 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: +0.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Peterboro (H)	1-3	+0.31
17 Oct	Doncaster (H)	2-1	+0.87
20 Oct	Bromley (A)	4-0	+1.75
24 Oct	Luton (A)	1-2	−0.03
27 Oct	Wigan (H)	3-0	+1.40
31 Oct	Stevenage (H)	2-2	+0.80

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 8 As it looks

Points per game: 1.69 overall, 1.67 at home, 1.71 away. Points v an average side: +5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Reading (A)	1-1	+0.54
10 Oct	Leyton Orient (H)	0-0	+0.54
17 Oct	Stevenage (H)	2-0	+0.72
20 Oct	Burton (A)	0-0	+0.17
24 Oct	Oxford (A)	0-0	+0.28
31 Oct	Huddersfield (H)	0-3	−0.70

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Leicester: 5 pts from 7, performance −0.14. Bradford: 14 pts from 7, performance +0.21.

Leicester: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Bradford: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)