League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Luton v Cambridge

My shortlist

Luton the pick at home to Cambridge

The model's view

55%

24%

21%

Luton win 55% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Luton 1.5, Cambridge 0.9.

Luton are 4th with 24 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Cambridge are 8th with 21 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 17th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Luton took 11 points from 6 games, Cambridge 10 from 6; on performance Luton were 1.2 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Cambridge away have spent 66% of their minutes level, against a league average of 50% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Cambridge away have taken 6 points from the 5 games in which they fell behind. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 4 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.71 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.43 away. Points v an average side: +5.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
17 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons (A)	1-2	−0.00
20 Oct	Barnsley (H)	2-1	+0.85
24 Oct	Leicester (H)	2-1	+0.77
27 Oct	Doncaster (H)	3-1	+0.89
31 Oct	Peterboro (A)	2-0	+0.36
3 Nov	Huddersfield (A)	1-1	+0.37

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 8 · performance rank 17 Flattered

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 1.57 at home, 1.43 away. Points v an average side: +1.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Blackpool (H)	1-0	+0.76
17 Oct	Barnsley (A)	2-1	−0.00
20 Oct	Wycombe (H)	2-2	−0.57
24 Oct	Plymouth (H)	2-3	−0.08
27 Oct	Sheffield Weds (A)	1-1	+0.21
31 Oct	Leyton Orient (A)	0-3	−0.04

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Luton: 11 pts from 6, performance +0.68. Cambridge: 10 pts from 6, performance −0.47.

Luton: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Cambridge: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)