League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Milton Keynes Dons v Burton

My shortlist

Milton Keynes Dons the pick at home to Burton

The model's view

44%

27%

29%

Milton Keynes Dons win 44% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 1.3, Burton 1.1.

Milton Keynes Dons are 12th with 18 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank 7th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Burton are 15th with 17 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Milton Keynes Dons took 12 points from 8 games, Burton 8 from 8; on performance Milton Keynes Dons were 1.1 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Position 12 · performance rank 7 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.39 overall, 1.71 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Reading (H)	1-5	−3.00
17 Oct	Luton (H)	2-1	−0.09
20 Oct	Blackpool (A)	0-2	+0.23
24 Oct	Stevenage (A)	1-0	+1.80
27 Oct	Bromley (H)	4-1	+0.57
31 Oct	Doncaster (H)	6-1	+2.90

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 15 · performance rank 19 As it looks

Points per game: 1.21 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −1.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Huddersfield (H)	1-3	−2.78
10 Oct	Doncaster (A)	0-1	+0.45
17 Oct	Peterboro (A)	2-2	−1.69
20 Oct	Bradford (H)	0-0	−0.14
24 Oct	Leyton Orient (H)	2-1	+0.09
31 Oct	Wycombe (A)	0-2	−0.04

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Milton Keynes Dons: 12 pts from 8, performance +0.46. Burton: 8 pts from 8, performance −0.62.

Milton Keynes Dons: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Burton: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)