League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Peterboro v Oxford

My shortlist

Oxford the pick away at Peterboro

The model's view

22%

25%

53%

Oxford win 53% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Peterboro 1.0, Oxford 1.5.

Peterboro are 22nd with 10 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank 9th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Oxford are 3rd with 26 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank only 13th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Peterboro took 9 points from 8 games, Oxford 15 from 8; on performance Peterboro were 0.5 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Oxford are unbeaten in 10. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Oxford away have spent 42% of their minutes ahead, against a league average of 23% (6 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 22 · performance rank 9 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.77 overall, 0.83 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −7.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
26 Sept	Stockport (A)	0-1	+0.37
10 Oct	Leicester (A)	3-1	−0.29
17 Oct	Burton (H)	2-2	+1.29
20 Oct	Huddersfield (A)	1-4	−0.77
24 Oct	Bromley (A)	1-1	+0.11
31 Oct	Luton (H)	0-2	−0.40

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 3 · performance rank 13 Flattered

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.14 at home, 1.83 away. Points v an average side: +8.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Oct	Mansfield (A)	1-1	−2.77
20 Oct	Wigan (H)	2-1	+1.03
24 Oct	Bradford (H)	0-0	+0.20
27 Oct	Stockport (H)	1-0	−0.23
31 Oct	Barnsley (A)	1-1	+1.86
4 Nov	Reading (H)	2-0	−1.13

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Peterboro: 9 pts from 8, performance +0.12. Oxford: 15 pts from 8, performance −0.38.

Peterboro: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Oxford: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)