League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Sheffield Weds v Plymouth

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Sheffield Weds v Plymouth: too close to call

The model's view

34%

28%

38%

Plymouth win 38% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Sheffield Weds 1.2, Plymouth 1.3.

Sheffield Weds are 9th with 20 points from 13 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Plymouth are 5th with 23 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 10th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 9 sides both have played: Sheffield Weds took 13 points from 9 games, Plymouth 19 from 9; on performance Sheffield Weds were 0.4 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Position 9 · performance rank 12 As it looks

Points per game: 1.54 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.67 away. Points v an average side: +1.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Huddersfield (A)	2-2	+0.55
17 Oct	AFC Wimbledon (H)	5-0	+1.64
20 Oct	Notts County (A)	0-2	−2.08
24 Oct	Doncaster (A)	0-2	−0.15
27 Oct	Cambridge (H)	1-1	−0.19
1 Nov	Blackpool (H)	1-1	−1.00

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 10 Flattered

Points per game: 1.64 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +4.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Leyton Orient (A)	2-0	+0.81
10 Oct	AFC Wimbledon (H)	2-1	+0.14
17 Oct	Huddersfield (H)	0-2	−2.13
20 Oct	Stevenage (A)	0-3	−0.04
24 Oct	Cambridge (A)	3-2	+0.36
31 Oct	Reading (H)	0-0	−0.42

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Sheffield Weds: 13 pts from 9, performance +0.51. Plymouth: 19 pts from 9, performance +0.08.

Sheffield Weds: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Plymouth: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)