League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Stevenage v Mansfield

My shortlist

Stevenage the pick at home to Mansfield

The model's view

44%

27%

28%

Stevenage win 44% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Stevenage 1.1, Mansfield 0.9.

Stevenage are 16th with 16 points from 12 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Mansfield are 11th with 19 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank 6th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 0.9 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Stevenage took 9 points from 7 games, Mansfield 9 from 7; on performance Mansfield were 0.4 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Position 16 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.33 overall, 1.67 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Leyton Orient (A)	0-1	+1.16
10 Oct	Wigan (H)	1-0	+1.49
17 Oct	Bradford (A)	0-2	−0.51
20 Oct	Plymouth (H)	3-0	+0.41
24 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons (H)	0-1	−1.95
31 Oct	Leicester (A)	2-2	−0.26

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 11 · performance rank 6 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.46 overall, 1.83 at home, 1.14 away. Points v an average side: +0.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Bromley (H)	2-1	+0.53
15 Oct	Oxford (H)	1-1	+3.13
20 Oct	AFC Wimbledon (A)	3-0	+1.22
24 Oct	Blackpool (A)	4-1	+0.82
31 Oct	Notts County (H)	0-2	+0.18
3 Nov	Wigan (A)	0-0	−0.46

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Stevenage: 9 pts from 7, performance −0.02. Mansfield: 9 pts from 7, performance +0.41.

Stevenage: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Mansfield: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)