League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Stockport v Reading

My shortlist

Stockport the pick at home to Reading

The model's view

51%

26%

23%

Stockport win 51% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Stockport 1.5, Reading 1.0.

Stockport are 2nd with 26 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.3 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Reading are 6th with 22 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 9 sides both have played: Stockport took 16 points from 9 games, Reading 12 from 9; on performance there was little between them.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Stockport at home have won every one of the 5 games they led. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Stockport at home have taken 6 points from the 4 games in which they fell behind. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Stockport have been playing well above the model's expectations lately, not just winning. Runs built on performances have tended to carry on a little; runs built on luck haven't.
Reading away have spent 75% of their minutes level, against a league average of 50% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 2 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 1.86 overall, 2.14 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: +6.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Barnsley (H)	3-1	+0.09
17 Oct	Bromley (H)	1-0	+0.31
20 Oct	Doncaster (A)	2-0	+3.29
24 Oct	Notts County (A)	1-1	+2.25
27 Oct	Oxford (A)	0-1	+0.94
31 Oct	AFC Wimbledon (H)	2-1	+1.06

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 1.57 overall, 2.29 at home, 0.86 away. Points v an average side: +2.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Milton Keynes Dons (A)	5-1	+2.85
17 Oct	Wigan (A)	0-1	+0.74
21 Oct	Leyton Orient (H)	1-0	−1.70
24 Oct	Barnsley (H)	2-1	−0.21
31 Oct	Plymouth (A)	0-0	+0.85
4 Nov	Oxford (A)	0-2	+1.58

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Stockport: 16 pts from 9, performance +0.92. Reading: 12 pts from 9, performance +0.85.

Stockport: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Reading: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)