League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Wigan v Barnsley

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Wigan v Barnsley: too close to call

The model's view

37%

28%

35%

Wigan win 37% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Wigan 1.1, Barnsley 1.1.

Wigan are 21st with 11 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Barnsley are 23rd with 9 points from 12 games, but on performances they rank 18th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Wigan took 6 points from 8 games, Barnsley 5 from 8; on performance Barnsley were 0.4 goals a game better.
In their favour: Wigan take 1.4 points a game at home.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Barnsley have gone 8 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 21 · performance rank 20 As it looks

Points per game: 0.79 overall, 1.43 at home, 0.14 away. Points v an average side: −7.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
17 Oct	Reading (H)	1-0	−0.89
20 Oct	Oxford (A)	1-2	−0.94
24 Oct	Huddersfield (A)	1-2	−1.86
27 Oct	Leicester (A)	0-3	−1.23
31 Oct	Bromley (H)	3-2	−0.42
3 Nov	Mansfield (H)	0-0	+0.23

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 23 · performance rank 18 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.75 overall, 0.83 at home, 0.67 away. Points v an average side: −6.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Leicester (H)	1-1	−1.03
10 Oct	Stockport (A)	1-3	+0.18
17 Oct	Cambridge (H)	1-2	−0.12
20 Oct	Luton (A)	1-2	−0.69
24 Oct	Reading (A)	1-2	+0.20
31 Oct	Oxford (H)	1-1	−1.71

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Wigan: 6 pts from 8, performance −0.67. Barnsley: 5 pts from 8, performance −0.25.

Wigan: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Barnsley: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)