League One · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Wycombe v Huddersfield

My shortlist

Wycombe v Huddersfield: too close to call

The model's view

34%

28%

39%

Huddersfield win 39% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Wycombe 1.3, Huddersfield 1.4.

Wycombe are 13th with 18 points from 13 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Huddersfield are 1st with 29 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.2 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 9 sides both have played: Wycombe took 13 points from 9 games, Huddersfield 19 from 9; on performance Huddersfield were 1.1 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Huddersfield are unbeaten in 7. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Huddersfield away have spent 44% of their minutes ahead, against a league average of 23% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Huddersfield have been playing well above the model's expectations lately, not just winning. Runs built on performances have tended to carry on a little; runs built on luck haven't.

Position 13 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 1.39 overall, 1.29 at home, 1.50 away. Points v an average side: −0.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
26 Sept	Reading (H)	2-2	+0.56
10 Oct	Luton (H)	1-4	−0.74
17 Oct	Notts County (H)	2-0	+0.29
20 Oct	Cambridge (A)	2-2	+0.76
24 Oct	AFC Wimbledon (A)	1-1	−0.38
31 Oct	Burton (H)	2-0	+0.10

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 1 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.07 overall, 2.14 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +9.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Sheffield Weds (H)	2-2	−0.28
17 Oct	Plymouth (A)	2-0	+2.89
20 Oct	Peterboro (H)	4-1	+0.85
24 Oct	Wigan (H)	2-1	+2.08
31 Oct	Bradford (A)	3-0	+1.19
3 Nov	Luton (H)	1-1	+0.39

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Wycombe: 13 pts from 9, performance −0.08. Huddersfield: 19 pts from 9, performance +1.02.

Wycombe: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Huddersfield: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)