League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Bristol Rvs v Chesterfield

My shortlist

Bristol Rvs v Chesterfield: too close to call

The model's view

33%

28%

39%

Chesterfield win 39% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Bristol Rvs 1.2, Chesterfield 1.3.

Bristol Rvs are 17th with 16 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 9th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Chesterfield are 10th with 19 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 2nd: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Bristol Rvs took 12 points from 10 games, Chesterfield 13 from 10; on performance there was little between them.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Bristol Rvs have gone 6 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Bristol Rvs have been playing better than their results lately (-0.5 points a game against the model's expectation, with performances at or above it). The model already rates them on the performances: since 2012, teams like this have taken about what it expected over their next five games.
Chesterfield away have spent 32% of their minutes ahead, against a league average of 16% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 17 · performance rank 9 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.14 overall, 1.86 at home, 0.43 away. Points v an average side: −2.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Crewe (A)	1-3	−0.76
10 Oct	Barnet (H)	1-3	+0.44
17 Oct	Shrewsbury (A)	0-1	−1.10
20 Oct	Salford (H)	1-2	+1.03
24 Oct	Swindon (H)	0-0	−0.23
31 Oct	Fleetwood Town (A)	1-3	−1.77

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 10 · performance rank 2 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 1.71 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Tranmere (H)	4-2	+1.60
10 Oct	Crawley Town (A)	2-2	−0.48
17 Oct	Port Vale (A)	0-1	+0.03
20 Oct	Colchester (H)	1-1	+1.28
24 Oct	Crewe (H)	5-1	+1.06
30 Oct	Newport County (A)	1-4	+0.20

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Bristol Rvs: 12 pts from 10, performance +0.55. Chesterfield: 13 pts from 10, performance +0.47.

Bristol Rvs: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Chesterfield: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)