League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Colchester v Gillingham

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Colchester the pick at home to Gillingham

The model's view

49%

26%

25%

Colchester win 49% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Colchester 1.4, Gillingham 0.9.

Colchester are 22nd with 12 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank 17th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Gillingham are 8th with 20 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 20th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Colchester took 6 points from 8 games, Gillingham 12 from 8; on performance Gillingham were 0.4 goals a game better.
In their favour: Colchester take 1.5 points a game at home.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Colchester have gone 10 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Colchester at home have spent 70% of their minutes level, against a league average of 51% (6 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Gillingham away have taken 4 points from the 4 games in which they fell behind. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 22 · performance rank 17 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.92 overall, 1.50 at home, 0.43 away. Points v an average side: −6.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
26 Sept	Shrewsbury (A)	2-2	−0.60
10 Oct	Newport County (A)	0-1	−1.05
17 Oct	Exeter (H)	0-0	+0.87
20 Oct	Chesterfield (A)	1-1	−0.94
24 Oct	Northampton (A)	0-2	+0.42
31 Oct	Walsall (H)	1-3	+0.31

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 8 · performance rank 20 Flattered

Points per game: 1.43 overall, 1.29 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: +0.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Newport County (H)	0-0	−1.48
10 Oct	Rotherham (A)	4-1	+1.01
17 Oct	Accrington (A)	1-3	−0.81
20 Oct	Port Vale (H)	1-1	+0.76
24 Oct	Grimsby (H)	1-4	−2.33
31 Oct	Shrewsbury (A)	2-1	−0.09

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Colchester: 6 pts from 8, performance −0.65. Gillingham: 12 pts from 8, performance −0.23.

Colchester: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Gillingham: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)