League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Crewe v Newport County

My shortlist

Crewe the pick at home to Newport County

The model's view

44%

28%

29%

Crewe win 44% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Crewe 1.3, Newport County 1.0.

Crewe are 4th with 22 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 15th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Newport County are 14th with 18 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Crewe took 12 points from 7 games, Newport County 11 from 7; on performance there was little between them.
No significant absences known.

Position 4 · performance rank 15 Flattered

Points per game: 1.57 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.29 away. Points v an average side: +3.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Bristol Rvs (H)	3-1	+0.74
10 Oct	Swindon (A)	1-0	+0.58
17 Oct	Rochdale (H)	3-2	+0.18
20 Oct	Exeter (A)	0-2	−0.85
24 Oct	Chesterfield (A)	1-5	−0.80
31 Oct	Barnet (H)	1-1	+0.47

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 1.29 overall, 2.14 at home, 0.43 away. Points v an average side: −1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Gillingham (A)	0-0	+0.94
10 Oct	Colchester (H)	1-0	+0.80
17 Oct	York (H)	1-1	−0.30
20 Oct	Rotherham (A)	2-2	+0.70
24 Oct	Cheltenham (A)	0-1	−0.07
30 Oct	Chesterfield (H)	4-1	−0.06

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Crewe: 12 pts from 7, performance −0.34. Newport County: 11 pts from 7, performance −0.20.

Crewe: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Newport County: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)