League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 12:30 Logged before kick-off

Exeter v Cheltenham

My shortlist

Exeter the pick at home to Cheltenham

The model's view

58%

24%

19%

Exeter win 58% confidence: medium Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Exeter 1.6, Cheltenham 0.8.

Exeter are 11th with 19 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Cheltenham are 5th with 21 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 23rd: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.8 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 9 sides both have played: Exeter took 12 points from 9 games, Cheltenham 12 from 9; on performance Exeter were 0.6 goals a game better.
In their favour: Exeter take 2.1 points a game at home.
No significant absences known.

Position 11 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 2.14 at home, 0.57 away. Points v an average side: +0.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Rotherham (H)	1-0	+1.51
10 Oct	Shrewsbury (A)	1-0	−0.33
17 Oct	Colchester (A)	0-0	−0.66
20 Oct	Crewe (H)	2-0	+0.93
24 Oct	Fleetwood Town (H)	2-1	+0.17
31 Oct	Salford (A)	1-2	+0.25

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 23 Flattered

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 2.29 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: +2.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Accrington (A)	0-2	−1.90
10 Oct	Salford (H)	0-2	−0.46
17 Oct	Oldham (A)	1-4	−0.99
20 Oct	Fleetwood Town (H)	4-2	−0.60
24 Oct	Newport County (H)	1-0	−0.51
31 Oct	Tranmere (A)	1-3	−0.47

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Exeter: 12 pts from 9, performance +0.11. Cheltenham: 12 pts from 9, performance −0.50.

Exeter: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Cheltenham: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)