League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 17:30 Logged before kick-off

Fleetwood Town v Tranmere

My shortlist

Fleetwood Town the pick at home to Tranmere

The model's view

50%

26%

24%

Fleetwood Town win 50% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.5, Tranmere 0.9.

Fleetwood Town are 16th with 17 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 11th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Tranmere are 12th with 19 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 11 sides both have played: Fleetwood Town took 13 points from 11 games, Tranmere 14 from 11; on performance there was little between them.
In their favour: Fleetwood Town take 1.7 points a game at home.
No significant absences known.

Position 16 · performance rank 11 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.21 overall, 1.71 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −2.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Salford (A)	0-1	−0.60
10 Oct	Walsall (H)	1-1	+0.55
17 Oct	Rotherham (H)	2-0	+0.40
20 Oct	Cheltenham (A)	2-4	+0.35
24 Oct	Exeter (A)	1-2	+0.05
31 Oct	Bristol Rvs (H)	3-1	+1.83

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 12 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 1.71 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Chesterfield (A)	2-4	−1.55
10 Oct	Rochdale (H)	1-1	+1.06
17 Oct	Barnet (H)	1-2	−1.27
20 Oct	Northampton (A)	1-0	−0.49
24 Oct	Crawley Town (A)	1-1	+0.28
31 Oct	Cheltenham (H)	3-1	−0.12

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Fleetwood Town: 13 pts from 11, performance −0.20. Tranmere: 14 pts from 11, performance −0.30.

Fleetwood Town: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Tranmere: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)