League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Port Vale v Accrington

My shortlist

Port Vale the pick at home to Accrington

The model's view

46%

27%

Port Vale win 46% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Port Vale 1.1, Accrington 0.8.

Port Vale are 19th with 15 points from 12 games, but on performances they rank 4th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Accrington are 9th with 19 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Port Vale took 10 points from 8 games, Accrington 10 from 8; on performance there was little between them.
In their favour: Port Vale take 2.3 points a game at home.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Accrington are unbeaten in 8. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Accrington away have won only 1 of the 4 games they led. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 19 · performance rank 4 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.25 overall, 2.33 at home, 0.17 away. Points v an average side: −1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Walsall (A)	0-2	−0.04
10 Oct	Grimsby (H)	1-0	+3.10
17 Oct	Chesterfield (H)	1-0	+0.40
20 Oct	Gillingham (A)	1-1	−0.80
24 Oct	York (A)	0-2	−0.24
31 Oct	Rochdale (H)	4-2	+1.77

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 1.86 at home, 0.86 away. Points v an average side: −0.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Cheltenham (H)	2-0	+1.43
10 Oct	Oldham (A)	0-0	+0.73
17 Oct	Gillingham (H)	3-1	+0.47
20 Oct	York (A)	1-1	−0.55
24 Oct	Rochdale (A)	5-0	+1.47
31 Oct	Northampton (H)	1-1	+0.25

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Port Vale: 10 pts from 8, performance +0.29. Accrington: 10 pts from 8, performance +0.17.

Port Vale: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Accrington: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)