League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Rochdale v York

My shortlist

York the pick away at Rochdale

The model's view

31%

28%

41%

York win 41% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Rochdale 1.3, York 1.5.

Rochdale are 20th with 15 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
York are 7th with 20 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Rochdale took 4 points from 7 games, York 12 from 7; on performance York were 1.7 goals a game better.
The caution: York take 0.4 points a game away, against 1.4 overall.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Rochdale have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Rochdale at home have spent 34% of their minutes behind, against a league average of 16% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Rochdale's performances have been well below the model's expectations lately, not just their results. Slumps built on performances have tended to linger a little; unlucky runs haven't.
York away have spent 70% of their minutes level, against a league average of 51% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
York away haven't won any of the 4 games they led. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 20 · performance rank 24 As it looks

Points per game: 1.07 overall, 1.43 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −4.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Swindon (H)	1-0	+0.40
10 Oct	Tranmere (A)	1-1	−1.51
17 Oct	Crewe (A)	2-3	−0.48
20 Oct	Grimsby (H)	2-2	−0.24
24 Oct	Accrington (H)	0-5	−1.82
31 Oct	Port Vale (A)	2-4	−2.04

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.43 overall, 2.43 at home, 0.43 away. Points v an average side: +1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Northampton (H)	1-1	+0.92
17 Oct	Newport County (A)	1-1	+0.04
20 Oct	Accrington (H)	1-1	+0.50
24 Oct	Port Vale (H)	2-0	+0.45
27 Oct	Barnet (A)	1-3	−0.22
31 Oct	Grimsby (A)	2-5	−1.87

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Rochdale: 4 pts from 7, performance −1.05. York: 12 pts from 7, performance +0.64.

Rochdale: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

York: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)