League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Rotherham v Crawley Town

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Rotherham the pick at home to Crawley Town

The model's view

44%

27%

28%

Rotherham win 44% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Rotherham 1.4, Crawley Town 1.1.

Rotherham are 23rd with 12 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Crawley Town are 24th with 9 points from 12 games, but on performances they rank 18th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Rotherham took 10 points from 8 games, Crawley Town 3 from 8; on performance Rotherham were 1.0 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Rotherham have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Rotherham at home have won only 1 of the 6 games they led. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 23 · performance rank 21 As it looks

Points per game: 0.86 overall, 1.14 at home, 0.57 away. Points v an average side: −8.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Exeter (A)	0-1	−1.29
10 Oct	Gillingham (H)	1-4	−1.22
17 Oct	Fleetwood Town (A)	0-2	−0.38
20 Oct	Newport County (H)	2-2	−0.99
24 Oct	Shrewsbury (H)	3-3	−1.16
31 Oct	Swindon (A)	1-2	−0.58

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 24 · performance rank 18 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.75 overall, 0.33 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: −7.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Grimsby (A)	0-2	−2.09
10 Oct	Chesterfield (H)	2-2	+0.60
17 Oct	Salford (A)	1-2	−0.62
20 Oct	Shrewsbury (H)	2-3	−0.77
24 Oct	Tranmere (H)	1-1	−0.75
31 Oct	Oldham (A)	1-0	+1.16

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Rotherham: 10 pts from 8, performance +0.53. Crawley Town: 3 pts from 8, performance −0.51.

Rotherham: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Crawley Town: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)