League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Salford v Northampton

My shortlist

Salford the pick at home to Northampton

The model's view

56%

24%

20%

Salford win 56% confidence: medium Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Salford 1.3, Northampton 0.8.

Salford are 1st with 31 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 8th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Northampton are 21st with 14 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Salford took 13 points from 6 games, Northampton 5 from 6; on performance Salford were 0.9 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Salford have won 8 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Salford at home have won every one of the 6 games they led. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 1 · performance rank 8 Flattered

Points per game: 2.21 overall, 2.57 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +11.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Fleetwood Town (H)	1-0	+0.90
10 Oct	Cheltenham (A)	2-0	+0.43
17 Oct	Crawley Town (H)	2-1	+0.66
20 Oct	Bristol Rvs (A)	2-1	−0.70
26 Oct	Walsall (A)	4-2	+0.86
31 Oct	Exeter (H)	2-1	+0.29

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 21 · performance rank 22 As it looks

Points per game: 1.08 overall, 1.14 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	York (A)	1-1	−0.97
17 Oct	Grimsby (A)	2-0	−0.58
20 Oct	Tranmere (H)	0-1	+0.13
24 Oct	Colchester (H)	2-0	−0.51
31 Oct	Accrington (A)	1-1	−0.22
3 Nov	Oldham (H)	0-1	+0.07

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Salford: 13 pts from 6, performance +0.40. Northampton: 5 pts from 6, performance −0.51.

Salford: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Northampton: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)