League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Shrewsbury v Oldham

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Shrewsbury v Oldham: too close to call

The model's view

36%

28%

36%

Oldham win 36% confidence: coin flip

Model's expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.1, Oldham 1.2.

Shrewsbury are 15th with 18 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 3rd: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Oldham are 18th with 15 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 12th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Shrewsbury took 10 points from 8 games, Oldham 5 from 8; on performance Shrewsbury were 0.3 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Position 15 · performance rank 3 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.29 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.14 away. Points v an average side: −1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Grimsby (A)	2-1	+0.20
10 Oct	Exeter (H)	0-1	+0.30
17 Oct	Bristol Rvs (H)	1-0	+0.95
20 Oct	Crawley Town (A)	3-2	+0.42
24 Oct	Rotherham (A)	3-3	+0.97
31 Oct	Gillingham (H)	1-2	−0.42

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 18 · performance rank 12 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.07 overall, 1.43 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −4.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Accrington (H)	0-0	−0.80
17 Oct	Cheltenham (H)	4-1	+0.69
20 Oct	Walsall (A)	0-3	−0.54
24 Oct	Barnet (A)	1-1	+1.77
31 Oct	Crawley Town (H)	0-1	−1.34
3 Nov	Northampton (A)	1-0	−0.10

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Shrewsbury: 10 pts from 8, performance +0.30. Oldham: 5 pts from 8, performance +0.02.

Shrewsbury: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Oldham: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)