League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Swindon v Grimsby

My shortlist

Grimsby the pick away at Swindon

The model's view

27%

46%

Grimsby win 46% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Swindon 1.1, Grimsby 1.5.

Swindon are 13th with 19 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 19th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Grimsby are 6th with 20 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 1st: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Swindon took 10 points from 8 games, Grimsby 10 from 8; on performance Grimsby were 0.4 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Swindon at home have taken 7 points from the 4 games in which they fell behind. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 13 · performance rank 19 Flattered

Points per game: 1.36 overall, 2.00 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −0.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Rochdale (A)	0-1	−0.84
10 Oct	Crewe (H)	0-1	−0.80
17 Oct	Walsall (H)	1-1	−0.06
20 Oct	Barnet (A)	3-1	−1.25
24 Oct	Bristol Rvs (A)	0-0	+0.10
31 Oct	Rotherham (H)	2-1	+0.33

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 1 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.43 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Shrewsbury (H)	1-2	+0.01
10 Oct	Port Vale (A)	0-1	−2.63
17 Oct	Northampton (H)	0-2	+0.83
20 Oct	Rochdale (A)	2-2	+0.25
24 Oct	Gillingham (A)	4-1	+2.39
31 Oct	York (H)	5-2	+2.22

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Swindon: 10 pts from 8, performance −0.21. Grimsby: 10 pts from 8, performance +0.23.

Swindon: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Grimsby: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)