League Two · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Walsall v Barnet

My shortlist

Barnet the pick away at Walsall

The model's view

33%

28%

39%

Barnet win 39% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Walsall 1.3, Barnet 1.4.

Walsall are 3rd with 22 points from 13 games, but on performances they rank only 14th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Barnet are 2nd with 26 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Walsall took 11 points from 8 games, Barnet 15 from 8; on performance Barnet were 0.9 goals a game better.
No significant absences known.

Position 3 · performance rank 14 Flattered

Points per game: 1.69 overall, 1.83 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: +4.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
26 Sept	Tranmere (A)	1-1	−1.41
10 Oct	Fleetwood Town (A)	1-1	−0.52
17 Oct	Swindon (A)	1-1	−0.09
20 Oct	Oldham (H)	3-0	+0.63
26 Oct	Salford (H)	2-4	−0.53
31 Oct	Colchester (A)	3-1	−0.28

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.00 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +7.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Bristol Rvs (A)	3-1	+0.04
17 Oct	Tranmere (A)	2-1	+1.46
20 Oct	Swindon (H)	1-3	+1.52
24 Oct	Oldham (H)	1-1	−1.26
27 Oct	York (H)	3-1	+0.61
31 Oct	Crewe (A)	1-1	−0.25

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Walsall: 11 pts from 8, performance −0.39. Barnet: 15 pts from 8, performance +0.50.

Walsall: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)

Barnet: Usual strength. (projected from injuries and suspensions)