Scottish Championship · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Ayr v Raith Rvs

My shortlist

Raith Rvs the pick away at Ayr

The model's view

27%

28%

45%

Raith Rvs win 45% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Ayr 1.0, Raith Rvs 1.5.

Ayr are 7th with 15 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Raith Rvs are 2nd with 25 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Ayr took 15 points from 12 games, Raith Rvs 22 from 13; on performance Raith Rvs were 0.9 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Raith Rvs away have spent 44% of their minutes ahead, against a league average of 24% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 7 · performance rank 8 As it looks

Points per game: 1.15 overall, 1.14 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: −3.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Stenhousemuir (H)	0-1	−1.13
3 Oct	Livingston (A)	2-1	+1.77
10 Oct	Dunfermline (H)	1-1	−0.01
16 Oct	Partick (H)	0-1	−0.78
31 Oct	Queens Park (H)	3-2	+0.28
7 Nov	Arbroath (A)	1-4	−3.33

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 1.79 overall, 1.57 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +5.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Morton (A)	2-1	+0.55
10 Oct	Queens Park (H)	2-0	+1.32
17 Oct	Stenhousemuir (A)	1-1	+0.28
24 Oct	Inverness C (H)	0-2	−1.98
31 Oct	Arbroath (A)	4-0	+3.81
6 Nov	Dunfermline (H)	0-0	+0.17

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Ayr: 15 pts from 12, performance −0.23. Raith Rvs: 22 pts from 13, performance +0.65.

Ayr:

Raith Rvs: