Scottish Championship · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Livingston v Morton

My shortlist

Livingston the pick at home to Morton

The model's view

63%

22%

15%

Livingston win 63% confidence: high Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Livingston 2.3, Morton 0.8.

Livingston are 5th with 21 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Morton are 9th with 13 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Livingston took 18 points from 13 games, Morton 13 from 12; on performance Livingston were 0.7 goals a game better.
Signal: Morton, smash-and-grab last win (4-3 v Stenhousemuir, despite creating less).
▼ Morton: smash-and-grab last win (4-3 v Stenhousemuir, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Morton have won 4 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 5 · performance rank 4 As it looks

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: +1.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
3 Oct	Ayr (H)	1-2	−1.46
10 Oct	Partick (H)	1-2	−0.82
17 Oct	Dunfermline (A)	0-0	+0.33
24 Oct	Arbroath (H)	1-0	+0.35
30 Oct	Stenhousemuir (A)	3-0	+3.16
7 Nov	Inverness C (A)	1-1	+0.34

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 0.86 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: −5.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Inverness C (A)	0-2	−1.73
3 Oct	Raith Rvs (H)	1-2	−0.97
10 Oct	Arbroath (A)	2-1	+0.90
17 Oct	Queens Park (H)	2-0	+1.33
31 Oct	Partick (A)	3-2	+1.75
7 Nov	Stenhousemuir (H)	4-3	+0.64

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Livingston: 18 pts from 13, performance +0.32. Morton: 13 pts from 12, performance −0.39.

Livingston:

Morton: