Scottish Championship · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Partick v Inverness C

My shortlist

Partick the pick at home to Inverness C

The model's view

50%

27%

23%

Partick win 50% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Partick 1.4, Inverness C 0.8.

Partick are 1st with 28 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Inverness C are 6th with 20 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Partick took 27 points from 13 games, Inverness C 19 from 13; on performance Partick were 0.7 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Partick at home have spent 52% of their minutes ahead, against a league average of 28% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Inverness C away have won only 2 of the 5 games they led. A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.

Position 1 · performance rank 3 As it looks

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.00 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +8.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Livingston (A)	2-1	+1.70
16 Oct	Ayr (A)	1-0	+1.00
20 Oct	Dunfermline (A)	1-1	+0.32
24 Oct	Stenhousemuir (H)	3-0	+2.84
31 Oct	Morton (H)	2-3	−1.80
7 Nov	Queens Park (A)	1-0	+0.59

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 1.43 overall, 1.71 at home, 1.14 away. Points v an average side: +1.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Stenhousemuir (H)	2-0	+1.90
13 Oct	Queens Park (A)	1-2	−1.35
17 Oct	Arbroath (H)	2-0	+1.39
24 Oct	Raith Rvs (A)	2-0	+2.53
31 Oct	Dunfermline (A)	1-5	−3.65
7 Nov	Livingston (H)	1-1	+0.32

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Partick: 27 pts from 13, performance +0.74. Inverness C: 19 pts from 13, performance +0.07.

Partick:

Inverness C: