Scottish Championship · Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Stenhousemuir v Queens Park

My shortlist

Stenhousemuir the pick at home to Queens Park

The model's view

52%

26%

22%

Stenhousemuir win 52% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.5, Queens Park 0.9.

Stenhousemuir are 4th with 23 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.5 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Queens Park are 10th with 7 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 0.9 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Stenhousemuir took 20 points from 13 games, Queens Park 7 from 13; on performance Stenhousemuir were 0.9 goals a game better.
Signal: Stenhousemuir, unlucky last defeat (3-4 v Morton, despite creating more).
▲ Stenhousemuir: unlucky last defeat (3-4 v Morton, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Stenhousemuir have gone 6 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Queens Park away have spent 61% of their minutes behind, against a league average of 28% (7 games). A small sample: treat as colour, not evidence.
Queens Park's performances have been well below the model's expectations lately, not just their results. Slumps built on performances have tended to linger a little; unlucky runs haven't.

Position 4 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.64 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.43 away. Points v an average side: +4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Inverness C (A)	0-2	−1.70
17 Oct	Raith Rvs (H)	1-1	+0.07
24 Oct	Partick (A)	0-3	−2.34
27 Oct	Dunfermline (H)	0-1	−1.00
30 Oct	Livingston (H)	0-3	−2.80
7 Nov	Morton (A)	3-4	−1.27

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 10 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 0.50 overall, 0.86 at home, 0.14 away. Points v an average side: −11.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Raith Rvs (A)	0-2	−1.50
13 Oct	Inverness C (H)	2-1	+1.03
17 Oct	Morton (A)	0-2	−2.42
24 Oct	Dunfermline (H)	0-1	−1.02
31 Oct	Ayr (A)	2-3	−1.02
7 Nov	Partick (H)	0-1	−0.75

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Stenhousemuir: 20 pts from 13, performance −0.08. Queens Park: 7 pts from 13, performance −0.95.

Stenhousemuir:

Queens Park: